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GBP at Risk with the OECD Painting a Bleak Picture for the UK Economy


In its latest economic assessment, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned that the UK economy could be among the worst hit of leading nations.

The OECD is predicting that due to coronavirus the UK economy is likely to shrink by about 11.5 per cent in 2020, which is more than other European economies like Germany, France, Spain and Italy.


The UK economy could even contract by up to 14 per cent if there is another significant spike in the coronavirus pandemic. And this cannot be ruled out given the abysmal performance of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government so far.

The total death toll from coronavirus in the UK has passed 52,000 and rising, making this one of the worst outcomes anywhere in the world. In a YouGov poll from countries across the world, people in the UK have ranked Boris Johnson’s government the worst in the world for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Yet Boris Johnson and his coterie of yes men and women stand in front of the media every day to brazenly say that they are doing a marvellous and "world-beating" job.

Yes, we now inhabit this weird reality of "alternative facts", but surely even the most loyal fans of bungling Boris should now begin to appreciate how incompetent and unsuited to the role of prime minister he is.

The architect of lockdown in the UK, Prof Neil Ferguson, said that an earlier lockdown would have halved the death toll because the outbreak had been doubling in size every three or four days before lockdown measures had been taken.

Just think about that, and what Boris Johnson was doing and saying before the lockdown was implemented. The prime minister was already in possession of the Cygnus report - a government exercise carried out in October 2016. It was a three-day training exercise on how to deal with a pandemic.

The report pointed out serious gaps in the country's preparedness and was supposed to prepare the government for something like the coronavirus, but Boris Johnson failed to do anything about the warning.

Instead, Boris Johnson went on a two-week holiday in February as the coronavirus was ravaging China and taking a grip in Italy. He also missed five meetings of the government top-level emergency committee - Cobra, where leadership was required to drive the government response to the pandemic.

Boris Johnson eventually attended a Cobra meeting in early March to then announce that the country is “very, very well-prepared”. Oh yes, indeed, because as Italy announced a total lockdown on 9 March, and France on 17 March, the UK government allowed 250,000 racegoers to attend the Cheltenham Festival, and 54,000 football fans watch Liverpool play Atletico Madrid.

Mr Johnson then caught Covid-19 shortly after trying to play down the threat from the virus, by gleefully telling the nation that he shook hands with Covid-19 patients.

The country now faces very serious challenges with Boris Johnson at the helm, especially when there is a refusal to acknowledge mistakes and therefore take appropriate corrective action.

The pandemic is far from over, and a Brexit no-deal is still looming large. Getting it wrong with the UK-EU Brexit negotiations will almost certainly squeeze the UK economy further with dire consequences.

The British public is realising to their cost that if you vote in a clown, then expect a circus.

Elsewhere, on Friday, UK GDP saw Britain’s economy shrinking by a record 20.4% in April as the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown triggered an economic crash three times greater than the 2008 financial crisis.

What does this all mean for GBP?

Once again there are growing cases for another strong bear pullback, particularly when the Brexit focus comes back into play. The move south did already begin this week, with the much needed technical correction, however, now more fundamentals are starting to support the move.

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