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Why US NFP Data Is Irrelevant Today For USD



The U.S. is scheduled to release its non-farm payrolls report today at 1330BST/0830EST. Market expectations are seen at -100K versus last month’s bullish report of 273K jobs added to the economy. Average earnings are expected to cool down to 0.2% versus previous 0.3%, with the unemployment rate expected to jump up to 3.8% versus the previous 3.5%.


Market participants are very likely to disregard the batch of data. Normally, the U.S. jobs report is considered perhaps the most important economic indicator; however, the jobs report for March is very much outdated before it is released. The jobs report is based on the pay period covering the 12th of the month, which is before the U.S. really started to lockdown.

As seen from the recent weekly initial jobless claims that have two weeks runnings, shown record spikes. The latest report jumped to 6.65m, as lay-offs stemming from the coronavirus shutdown accelerated and spread into new industries.

What does this mean for the USD


The dollar has been on the front foot throughout this week. Market players flood to the greenback as a safe-haven, given its status as the reserve currency of the world. The strength even comes despite all the continued efforts from the FOMC, to dilute the market with dollars.

Following the initial jobless claims report on Thursday, there was a minor bout of weakness for USD against some peers; however, this quickly changed and it went further ahead with its bull run. The same type of reaction may be observed on the back of the NFP data, with the dollar pushing for a strong close on Friday, heading into next week.

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